Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.089367 2.195169 2.308469 2.439773 2.589009 2.754945 2.955745
2025-10-05 2.008302 2.146314 2.300160 2.486935 2.711343 2.977731 3.327121
2025-10-12 1.969666 2.132145 2.318920 2.554264 2.850578 3.223589 3.752711
2025-10-19 1.904669 2.078677 2.282723 2.546296 2.889124 3.339614 4.019148
2025-10-26 1.858342 2.042328 2.261822 2.551662 2.940034 3.471669 4.325103
2025-11-02 1.795374 1.981400 2.205646 2.505802 2.915602 3.491706 4.456848
2025-11-09 1.753928 1.944225 2.176167 2.491190 2.930229 3.566272 4.686916
2025-11-16 1.718548 1.912519 2.151295 2.479934 2.946776 3.642780 4.932608
2025-11-23 1.684910 1.881319 2.125134 2.464559 2.954831 3.704813 5.162283
2025-11-30 1.667446 1.869515 2.123006 2.481033 3.009418 3.845784 5.583087
2025-12-07 1.617570 1.814736 2.062473 2.413156 2.932442 3.758888 5.494587
2025-12-14 1.590005 1.787741 2.037599 2.394072 2.928266 3.795205 5.691289
2025-12-21 1.555376 1.751618 2.000613 2.357919 2.898139 3.787920 5.796808
2025-12-28 1.552926 1.756770 2.018445 2.400204 2.992473 4.012008 6.558754
2026-01-04 1.557367 1.770759 2.048333 2.461084 3.121301 4.321845 7.775172
2026-01-11 1.537250 1.751667 2.032154 2.452704 3.134569 4.406173 8.337335
2026-01-18 1.522546 1.739274 2.024662 2.456747 3.168736 4.538257 9.198453
2026-01-25 1.492760 1.706056 1.987276 2.413840 3.118918 4.483373 9.219423
2026-02-01 1.473893 1.687052 1.969218 2.399783 3.118671 4.537739 9.810034
2026-02-08 1.456931 1.670210 1.953689 2.388911 3.123180 4.603264 10.542861
2026-02-15 1.439493 1.652348 1.936234 2.374332 3.120029 4.650664 11.251396
2026-02-22 1.432282 1.648064 1.937714 2.389112 3.170655 4.833349 13.243217
2026-03-01 1.400800 1.610312 1.890838 2.326337 3.075302 4.646120 12.079024